Lifetime Estimation for Electrical Components in Distribution Systems Using Their Inspection and Maintenance Records

Tóm tắt

Distribution system operators inspect electrical components in the distribution systems to maintain the reliability of power supply. Results of the inspection and necessary actions for them have been accumulating in databases as the inspection and the maintenance records. The authors propose an estimation method of operating lifetime of newly constructed electrical components as an application of these records. The aim of this study is to utilize the inspection and the maintenance records to decision making in expansion planning of the distribution systems. In the proposed method, decision tree learning is applied to analyze relationships between initial information of the electrical components (sets of specifications and weather conditions) and their operating lifetime. The resulting tree-like model uses initial information of the target component as input and estimates its operating lifetime. Numerical simulations are carried out for verifying the validity of the authors’ proposal using actual inspection and maintenance records accumulated in a Japanese electric power company. In addition, influential factors on the operating lifetime are specified through the numerical simulations and discussions on their results.